US Dollar to Chinese Yuan
USD/CNY is how many yuan one dollar buys, so a higher number is a weaker yuan. It is the fastest-moving price of China's external stance, and since 2015 it has tracked global risk appetite more closely than trade flows.
History
Why the yuan moves like a risk asset, not a trade variable
China runs large trade surpluses most years, which by itself should push the yuan up. It often falls anyway. The reason is the capital account: when global investors reduce risk, they sell Chinese assets and buy dollars, and the outflow can overwhelm the surplus on goods.
Since the devaluation of August 2015 the currency has been managed more tightly. The central bank publishes a daily reference rate, the midpoint, and the market may trade within a band around it. That makes USD/CNY partly a price and partly a policy statement, which is why it reacts to official guidance as much as to flows.
What moves it
The interest-rate gap with the United States is the dominant driver. When the 10-year Treasury yields considerably more than the 10-year Chinese government bond, capital is pulled toward dollars and the yuan weakens. The gap widened sharply in 2022 and 2023, and the currency followed.
Domestic growth expectations come next. A stronger-than-feared activity print can lift the yuan even while the rate gap is wide, because it changes the expected path of both growth and policy. Seasonal settlement of export receipts also shows up in the first quarter, when companies convert foreign earnings ahead of the lunar new year.
Reading it next to the dollar index
The dollar index measures the dollar against a basket of developed-market currencies. USD/CNY measures it against one emerging-market currency. They often move together, but they diverge when Beijing manages the midpoint or when Europe, not China, is driving the dollar.
For a portfolio the distinction matters. A dollar rally that is mostly about Europe leaves the yuan fairly stable; a dollar rally that drags the yuan down usually arrives with tighter global financial conditions and weaker emerging-market assets.
How this reading is calculated
We pull DEXCHUS from FRED, apply the transform shown above, and keep every observation the source publishes. Missing dates are dropped rather than filled, so holidays leave gaps instead of fake zeroes. The percentile is the share of observations since 1994 that sit below today's value.
The file is rebuilt daily. Derived series are computed by us from public-domain inputs and the formula is stated on this page, so anyone can reproduce the number from the original release.
How to read the percentile
The percentile compares today's reading with the indicator's own history, not with other indicators. A 20th percentile on this page means the current reading is lower than four fifths of all observations since 1994; it says nothing about whether that is good or bad for markets.
Extremes are the useful part. A reading above the 90th or below the 10th percentile is unusual enough to be worth explaining, and unusual readings tend to mean-revert. The middle of the distribution is mostly noise.
Why this page is free
Most indicators here hold back their newest observations for members, because there the recent reading is the product. This page is the deliberate exception. The current rate, the percentile, the distribution table and the full record back to 1994 are open to anyone, with no account and no cut-off date.
The reason is simple: a rate you can look up in a dozen other places is a poor thing to charge for, and a good place to judge whether the rest of the site is worth paying for. What you get here is the same pipeline every other page runs on — the same percentile method, the same weekly rebuild, the same source note.
The other indicators on the site withhold their newest 21 days on daily series, 28 on weekly and 45 on monthly. Nothing here is intraday; the Federal Reserve publishes this series once a week, so the reading above is the rate as of the latest H.10 release, not a tick.
Distribution since 1994
Each row is the share of historical observations at or below that level. A reading in the 90th percentile is higher than nine tenths of the record.
Important
Not investment advice. This page is published for information and education only. It is not a recommendation, solicitation, or offer to buy or sell any security. Market data may be delayed, incomplete, or revised. Indicators describe the past; they do not forecast returns. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research or consult a licensed financial professional before acting on anything you read here.
Questions
Does a weaker yuan mean China is in trouble?
Not by itself. A cheaper currency helps exporters and can be a deliberate response to soft demand. It becomes a stress signal when it is accompanied by capital outflows and falling foreign-exchange reserves, because that combination means residents and foreigners are both trying to leave.
Is the exchange rate fixed by the government?
No. It is a managed float. The central bank sets a daily midpoint and allows trading within a band around it, so the rate is neither free nor fixed. The band has been widened several times, and the midpoint itself is the strongest daily signal of official intent.
Why does this series start in 1994?
In January 1994 China merged its official and swap-market exchange rates into a single rate of about 8.7 to the dollar. Quotes before that date come from a dual-rate system and are not comparable with the modern series, so the percentile here is measured from the unification onward.
Is this page really free, or is something held back?
Nothing is held back. This is the one page where the newest observation is open too, so you can check the update cadence and the data quality before subscribing. The rest of the site withholds its latest readings for members, on the schedule described above.