Read the market's temperature, not the noise.
Valuation, stress and liquidity — the indicators long-term investors actually use to judge where they are in the cycle. Every chart, every historical reading and the full methodology are free. Only the most recent days are reserved for members.
Valuation
What you pay for a dollar of earnings or output.Warren Buffett once called market capitalisation divided by GDP "probably the best single measure of where valuations…
The real yield is what a lender earns after inflation is stripped out. It is the discount rate that equity valuations…
Recession and stress
Whether the cycle is turning and how much strain the system is under.The Sahm rule fires when the three-month average unemployment rate rises half a percentage point above its low for…
One number for how much strain the financial system is under. Zero is average stress; positive means tighter than…
What actually happened, not what options traders expect to happen. This is the annualised standard deviation of the…
Liquidity and macro
The plumbing: money, reserves, the curve and the dollar.The gap between the 10-year and 2-year Treasury yield is the market's oldest recession gauge. When it turns negative…
The 3-month bill tracks the policy rate almost one-for-one, so the 10Y–3M spread is the cleanest read on whether the…
M2 is the broadest standard measure of money in the U.S. economy. Its year-over-year growth rate is the simplest read…
Reserves are the most liquid asset a bank holds. Their direction is the clearest mechanical read on whether…
The dollar is the price of global liquidity. A broad, trade-weighted measure is a better read than the euro-heavy DXY…
What we will not do
Most indicator sites resell vendor data under licences that forbid redistribution, or publish readings nobody can reproduce. Every series here comes from a U.S. federal release — Federal Reserve, Treasury, BEA — and the derived ones show their formula. If a source cannot be used commercially without restrictions, it does not go on this site.
That rules out Shiller's CAPE dataset (CC BY-NC), the AAII and NAAIM surveys (private, no redistribution), and any index level licensed from S&P or CBOE. Where we wanted one of those readings, we built a public-domain equivalent instead — realised volatility rather than an implied-volatility index, for instance.
Indicators describe the past. None of them forecast returns, and a percentile is not a probability statement about next year. Use them to frame the question, not to answer it.
Important
Not investment advice. This page is published for information and education only. It is not a recommendation, solicitation, or offer to buy or sell any security. Market data may be delayed, incomplete, or revised. Indicators describe the past; they do not forecast returns. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research or consult a licensed financial professional before acting on anything you read here.