Nonfarm Payrolls (Monthly Change)
Nonfarm payrolls is the monthly change in the number of paid employees across the U.S. economy, excluding farm work, private households and the military. It is the single most market-moving economic release.
History
What the establishment survey counts
The figure comes from a survey of about 120,000 businesses and government agencies, which report how many people were on payroll in the pay period containing the twelfth of the month. It counts jobs, not people: one person with two jobs is counted twice, and the self-employed are not counted at all.
Why the first number is not the number
The initial estimate is based on a partial sample and is revised twice in the following two months, then again in an annual benchmark that reconciles it with unemployment insurance tax records. Revisions of 50,000 or more are common, and they have changed the direction of the series in the past.
The three-month average is the honest way to read it. One month is noise; three months is a trend; the twelve-month average is the cycle.
What it means for rates
A strong print raises the expected path of policy and lifts the 2-year yield; a weak one does the reverse. The market reaction depends less on the level than on the surprise against consensus, which is why a 150,000 print can be bullish if the expectation was 90,000.
How this reading is calculated
We pull PAYEMS from FRED, apply the transform shown above, and keep every observation the source publishes. Missing dates are dropped rather than filled, so holidays leave gaps instead of fake zeroes. The percentile is the share of observations since 1939 that sit below today's value.
The file is rebuilt daily. Derived series are computed by us from public-domain inputs and the formula is stated on this page, so anyone can reproduce the number from the original release.
How to read the percentile
The percentile compares today's reading with the indicator's own history, not with other indicators. A 20th percentile on this page means the current reading is lower than four fifths of all observations since 1939; it says nothing about whether that is good or bad for markets.
Extremes are the useful part. A reading above the 90th or below the 10th percentile is unusual enough to be worth explaining, and unusual readings tend to mean-revert. The middle of the distribution is mostly noise.
What is free and what is member-only
The current reading, the percentile and the full historical record are free. The most recent months of data are reserved for members, because that is the part that tells you what the indicator is doing right now rather than what it did years ago.
Members see every observation through the latest release, the same chart without the mask, and the same numbers on every indicator page. Nothing on this site is intraday.
Distribution since 1939
Each row is the share of historical observations at or below that level. A reading in the 90th percentile is higher than nine tenths of the record.
Important
Not investment advice. This page is published for information and education only. It is not a recommendation, solicitation, or offer to buy or sell any security. Market data may be delayed, incomplete, or revised. Indicators describe the past; they do not forecast returns. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research or consult a licensed financial professional before acting on anything you read here.
Questions
How can payrolls rise while unemployment rises?
They come from different surveys. Payrolls counts jobs at employers; unemployment comes from a household survey. Rising participation can lift both the labour force and the unemployment rate while employers keep hiring.
Why do the revisions matter so much?
Because policy and prices react to the first print, and the revised number arrives after the reaction. A run of downward revisions is itself a signal that the labour market is weaker than it looked.
What is a good payroll number?
Roughly 100,000 to 150,000 a month keeps unemployment steady given current population growth. Much more risks inflation; much less eventually raises unemployment.
Why is the latest month locked?
The current reading and the full history are free. The most recent releases are part of the member plan.