Core CPI Inflation (Year over Year)
Core CPI is the twelve-month change in consumer prices after food and energy are removed. The two excluded categories are the most volatile in the basket, and stripping them out is the quickest way to see the underlying trend.
History
What is excluded, and what that costs
Food and energy make up roughly a fifth of the index and account for a disproportionate share of its month-to-month variance. A gasoline spike can lift headline inflation for a quarter and reverse it the next. Core removes that noise so the signal from shelter, services and goods is visible.
The cost is that core ignores things people actually buy every week. When energy prices stay high long enough to feed into transport, food processing and wage demands, core eventually picks it up, but with a lag of several months.
Why shelter dominates the recent record
Shelter is about a third of the index and it is measured with a lease-based methodology that lags market rents by six to twelve months. When rents surge, core CPI keeps rising long after the rental market has turned, and the reverse is also true.
That lag is the main reason core inflation has looked sticky in periods when goods prices were already falling. Watching the shelter component separately explains most of the gap between the headline narrative and the index.
How to use it
Three-month annualised changes react faster than twelve-month ones and are what the Fed's staff watch when deciding whether the trend has turned. Twelve-month changes are what the public and the press quote. Both are in the same release, and they can point in different directions for months.
A single print is not a trend. The useful question is whether three consecutive prints move the three-month annualised rate in the same direction.
How this reading is calculated
We pull CPILFESL from FRED, apply the transform shown above, and keep every observation the source publishes. Missing dates are dropped rather than filled, so holidays leave gaps instead of fake zeroes. The percentile is the share of observations since 1958 that sit below today's value.
The file is rebuilt daily. Derived series are computed by us from public-domain inputs and the formula is stated on this page, so anyone can reproduce the number from the original release.
How to read the percentile
The percentile compares today's reading with the indicator's own history, not with other indicators. A 20th percentile on this page means the current reading is lower than four fifths of all observations since 1958; it says nothing about whether that is good or bad for markets.
Extremes are the useful part. A reading above the 90th or below the 10th percentile is unusual enough to be worth explaining, and unusual readings tend to mean-revert. The middle of the distribution is mostly noise.
What is free and what is member-only
The current reading, the percentile and the full historical record are free. The most recent months of data are reserved for members, because that is the part that tells you what the indicator is doing right now rather than what it did years ago.
Members see every observation through the latest release, the same chart without the mask, and the same numbers on every indicator page. Nothing on this site is intraday.
Distribution since 1958
Each row is the share of historical observations at or below that level. A reading in the 90th percentile is higher than nine tenths of the record.
Important
Not investment advice. This page is published for information and education only. It is not a recommendation, solicitation, or offer to buy or sell any security. Market data may be delayed, incomplete, or revised. Indicators describe the past; they do not forecast returns. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research or consult a licensed financial professional before acting on anything you read here.
Questions
What is the difference between CPI and core CPI?
CPI includes food and energy; core CPI excludes them. Core is smoother and is used to judge the underlying trend, while headline reflects what households actually pay.
Is core inflation manipulated?
No. The exclusions are published in advance, the component weights are public, and the BLS publishes the methodology. The series is a fixed, reproducible rule, not a judgement call.
Why does the Fed target PCE instead?
PCE covers a broader set of spending, uses chain weights that adjust as consumers substitute, and can be revised. CPI is fixed-weight and covers out-of-pocket health costs differently.
Why is the newest observation locked?
The current reading and the full history are free. The latest releases are part of the member plan.